Issue 196 of SOCIALIST REVIEW Published April 1996 Copyright © Socialist Review

Italy goes to the polls once more on 21 April for the third time in four years. The outgoing Fiat boss, Gianni Agnelli, summed up the problem for his class when he said, 'We don't yet have a new (political) ruling class. We have a political system that is no longer capable of producing one.'

From 1992 onwards, judicial investigations into systematic corruption between politicians, bosses and organised crime led to the conviction of hundreds of politicians and bosses. With them fell their political parties, principally the Christian Democrats and Socialists--the mainstays of Italian governments since the war. In the turmoil, large sections of the ruling class looked to media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi's right wing alliance of Thatcherites and fascists to provide stability. Despite a convincing victory in the 1994 elections, Berlusconi's government fell after eight months when faced with massive protests and strikes against proposals to cut state pensions.

Italy's leaders desperately wanted to avoid an election until after June when its crucial term as president of the European Union comes to an end. But the fall of Lamberto Dini's caretaker government, which replaced Berlusconi's coalition, was long overdue. Yet Dini's government succeeded where Berlusconi's failed by pushing through pension cuts, privatisations and a budget which slashes welfare spending. Its ace card was the support of the largest party on the left, the Blairite ex-Communists (PDS), together with the acquiescence of the main trade union leaderships. Despite the government's anti working class programme, the PDS was desperate to avoid an, election where it feared another big victory for the right under Berlusconi.

Two issues dominate the ruling class's thinking at the moment. The first is how to continue more rapidly the huge reductions in Italy's budget deficit and national debt--by far the largest in the European Union--to meet the Maastricht criteria. The second is how to get a strong government which can deliver these spending cuts. So far this has boiled down to attempting to change the electoral system from proportional representation to 'first past the post'. A hybrid system was introduced for the 1994 election which forced the political parties into two main electoral blocs.

For the current election the main contenders are basically the same two alliances: the innocuously named Uliva (Olive Tree) which is dominated by the PDS and includes a host of small centre parties. Its candidate for prime minister is a former industrial boss, Prodi. The whole Uliva setup stinks of the PDS's attempts to shed its class politics heritage in search of the ruling class's 'trust' as a potential government. On the right is Polla della Liberta (Freedom Alliance). This revolves round Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the fascist National Alliance. Opinion polls suggest that support is evenly distributed between the two alliances. At issue is whether either can get enough votes for an overall majority. Whatever the outcome, both alliances are promising to attack jobs, services and pay.

For socialists, fighting cuts in public spending has to go hand in hand with beating back the fascists. The 1990s have seen growing polarisation and volatility in Italian society. with them has come an enormous increase in the support and influence of fascism. The fascist National Alliance's vote grew from around 5 percent in the late 1980s to 12 percent in 1994 and will probably be nearer 20 percent in the coming election. With Berlusconi currently facing several corruption charges, fascist leader Fini's stature on the right has grown as a 'clean' and competent politician. The fascists are now a large and important force on the right with up to 400,000 members and their trade union, UGIL (formerly CISNAL), is growing.

The largest and most effective organisation on the left fighting the cuts and the fascists is Rifondazione Communista--a left split from the Communist Party which attracted its best militants and some remnants of the revolutionary left such as Proletarian Democracy. Rifondazione has also managed to attract significant numbers from the left of the trade union bureaucracy. Party leader Fausto Bertinotti, who defected from the PDS in 1993, was the CGIL union's left opposition leader. With some 165,000 members, deep roots in the organised working class and an influential layer of union bureaucrats, Rifondazione has been central to building rank and file organisations such as the Cobas, and leading huge demonstrations and strikes over the past five years. Increasingly its protests have been in direct opposition to the PDS and the union leaderships who didn't want to rock the Dini boat. Rifondazione's organisational strength has managed to tap the enormous anger in the working class. On 24 February it organised a demonstration in Rome of 200,000 against the fascists.

But for all of Rifondazione's extra-parliamentary opposition to cuts and fascism it remains a left reformist party. Its central weakness is that it remains tied to an electoral strategy. This meant that during the 1994 election it was part of the PDS's alliance and accepted in principle the need for privatisation as part of its election platform, though it has taken a more independent line since the PDS decided to support the Dini government. It is formally standing on its own in this election. However, the need to halt the fascist advance has forced Rifondazione to enter into electoral agreements with the PDS to avoid splitting the left vote. But it has stated its intention to oppose any new government pushing through cuts.

As for the outcome of the election, the source of Dini's success in making cuts--a left cover from the PDS--is not lost on the ruling class. After Dini's resignation there was a failed attempt to forge a government of national unity comprising the PDS and Forza Italia (Berlusconi would not break with the fascists). If the election produces a deadlock, the same thing may be tried again.

Whatever happens, the outcome of Italy's protracted crisis will turn on the fortunes of the large and growing rank and file organisations and their struggles. Out of these there needs to develop revolutionary politics which challenges the dominant left reformism of Rifondazione.